Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 9.495881 11.141567 12.947546 15.071113 17.494075 20.166635 23.331631
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.992069 9.228790 11.936694 15.430673 19.790866 25.021789 31.738076
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 5.175224 7.586824 10.769514 15.216502 21.198129 28.885166 39.416124
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.826900 6.178077 9.533204 14.564140 21.786713 31.628812 45.865222
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.926814 5.163651 8.590495 14.062915 22.380426 34.301558 52.359908
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.400249 4.585776 8.151515 14.166988 23.768408 38.130255 60.741748
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.941566 4.008050 7.589737 13.954182 24.587061 41.130170 68.108532
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.727756 3.811822 7.614370 14.671742 26.916079 46.589926 79.602537
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.494018 3.522964 7.418287 14.962412 28.538575 51.036408 89.826202
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.273184 3.208587 7.116158 15.005495 29.713308 54.817664 99.232085
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.090607 2.932728 6.837353 15.040249 30.851651 58.597411 108.876437
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.031107 2.921304 7.086236 16.114583 33.977148 66.002985 125.121416
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.933300 2.804236 7.109040 16.769547 36.437397 72.534325 140.515374
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.843489 2.687797 7.117238 17.401084 38.928517 79.340789 156.926192
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.715778 2.438770 6.781873 17.255059 39.863752 83.371281 168.670459
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.579403 2.125857 6.235667 16.561104 39.597087 85.109730 176.338486
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.474397 1.872689 5.785625 16.013096 39.559595 87.256274 184.877924
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.414527 1.743360 5.629984 16.134866 40.967206 92.325811 199.275870
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.350347 1.578556 5.345876 15.898312 41.548617 95.769534 210.736783
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.329015 1.559772 5.468412 16.703329 44.565504 104.387632 232.870539
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.295423 1.484188 5.410782 17.029274 46.493516 110.858566 251.072512
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.258634 1.383293 5.257359 17.077657 47.765730 116.026710 266.938476
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.226498 1.289870 5.108527 17.116633 49.014877 121.223167 283.155103